The Wire - September 3, 2025

//The Wire//2300Z September 3, 2025//
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//BLUF: WHITE HOUSE SHARES DETAILS OF NARCO-VESSEL STRIKE AS TENSIONS REMAIN HIGH THROUGHOUT THE REGION.//

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-International Events-

Caribbean Sea: The Pentagon released amplifying details regarding yesterdays sinking of a suspected narco-vessel in the waters off the coast of Venezuela. 11x people were on board the vessel, which was struck with a missile. The Pentagon has stated that the individuals onboard were positively identified as narcotics traffickers.

-HomeFront-

Mississippi: Details have come to light regarding an incident that took place over the weekend in the town of Oxford. The Oxford Police Department criminally charged the owner of Booth's Barbecue for holding an event at their legally-operated business within the town. The restaurant held a weekend event that resulted in parking issues around the town, and resulted in general congestion due to the large crowds. During the events of the day, one individual produced a firearm and began shooting at another individual, in what is suspected as being a gang dispute.

Following this shooting, the owners of the restaurant were cited for "inadequate security" and failing to have a "safety plan", in addition to other charges.

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Analyst Comments: As a reminder, the verbiage being used to refer to those killed in the strike off the coast of Venezuela reflects the previous efforts to classify Tren de Aragua as a Foreign Terrorist Organization, so all of these individuals are referred to as "terrorists" and not drug traffickers. Contrary to popular belief, this classification does not often result in vibes or essays but rather the application of Rules of Engagement in accordance with the UCMJ and the guidance set forth by the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (CJCS) in Joint Publication 3-60.

As far as the paperwork goes, Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro himself is listed as the leader of this "terrorist organization", which is largely contradictory as TdA has opposed Maduro in the past, with most of the gang being rounded up and thrown in Venezuelan prisons. The details of the strike itself are also interesting as it's not very common to see eleven people onboard a vessel that is primarily conducting drug trafficking operations.

Nevertheless, the strike itself is mostly tactically irrelevant but serves two very important functions: To send a very strong message to Maduro, and also to gauge public sentiment within the United States to determine if the American people will accept future operations.

Here at home, there is always the possibility that this escalation will result in threats within the homeland; the thousands of different gangs, criminal syndicates, and those sympathetic to cartel operations are probably not too pleased with the recent developments in South America. On the other hand, it must be noted that Central American gangs and criminal enterprises have very different motivations than what many may be familiar with from the past 40 years of fighting counterinsurgencies in the Middle East...most nefarious groups in Central and South America are financially-motivated, not ideologically-motivated. It is possible that knee-jerk protests/demonstrations will be the result from protesters, but most of this will not really be relevant when it comes to risk. The real concerns to watch out for are how cartel traffickers respond to this development: some cells/groups may go further underground and lay low for a while, but others may become emboldened and attempt to stand and fight. If larger and more influential cartels/groups decide that fighting back in a more kinetic manner is the option that is in their best interest, the situation may become very kinetic rather quickly.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
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