The Wire - May 7, 2025

//The Wire//2300Z May 7, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: INDIA/PAKISTAN SPAT REMAINS SHORT OF FULL-BLOWN WAR, SITUATION TENOUS REGARDLESS. USS TRUMAN LOSES ANOTHER AIRCRAFT OVERBOARD. STRATEGIC BUILDUP AT DIEGO GARCIA CONTINUES.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

India/Pakistan: Though an all-out war has not yet begun, tensions remain high following yesterday's missile strikes. Examination of various debris fields does confirm that several Indian aircraft were shot down, including what looks to be the first combat loss of a Dassault Rafale fighter aircraft. However the total number of platforms lost overnight remains unclear.

AC: For the moment, Pakistan has not conducted their counterattack yet, all of last-night's activities were knee-jerk defensive moves and not a deliberately planned counteroffensive.

Red Sea/HOA: Yesterday President Trump announced a cessation of hostilities against the Houthi government due to the Houthis ceasing their targeting of commercial shipping. A few hours after this announcement, a Houthi spokesman stated that this is not true, and that the war is still on as before.

In the Red Sea, the USS HARRY S TRUMAN suffered another aviation mishap, which involved the loss of another F/A-18 due to a failure of arresting gear during flight operations. Due to this failure, the pilot and weapons officer both ejected from the aircraft as it fell off of the flight deck. 

AC: Despite the PR disaster of losing two aircraft to mishaps within 7 days, these types of events happen fairly often. Arresting cables snap all the time, and sometimes there isn't enough airspeed left to successfully abort the landing and take off again. Aviation operations onboard an aircraft carrier are a risky business, and the increase in mishaps is often directly related to an increase in optempo. Regardless, the loss of a total of three aircraft, which are bombing a country that does not have any air force whatsoever, is not entirely a good look.

Indian Ocean: The strategic buildup of bomber aircraft continues as 2x B-52 Stratofortress aircraft have forward deployed to Diego Garcia to supplement the 6x B2 Spirit stealth bombers already on the island. Two more B-52's have been observed by plane watchers heading toward the island as well, which would bring the total of B-52's to 4x.

AC: The continual forward deployment of strategic resources to this island continues to present indications and warnings of a major military campaign. Additionally, this deployment highlights discrepancies with the rhetoric involving war with Iran.

Russia: This afternoon Moscow's airspace was closed due to a mass Ukrainian drone attack. This was the first much anticipated drone attack that was expected to take place during Russia's celebration of Victory Day (and the festivities and parades taking place around May 9th). Russia's MoD states that 524x Ukrainian drones have been shot down over the past 24 hours. 

AC: These numbers obviously can't be independently confirmed, but it sounds about right. Ukraine, having shown obviously no interest in participating in a ceasefire, is heavily invested in doubling down to make a show during Victory Day events and parades. This is not only because a lot of functional military hardware is already staged in Moscow, but also because a lot of foreign dignitaries are visiting. China's Xi Jinping arrived in Moscow this morning, and his presence alone raises the stakes of the war on both sides. Over the next 24-48 hours, Russia will be very concerned with defending the airspace of her capital city...and Ukraine will be very motivated to target it.

 -HomeFront-

U.S.A. - Around the nation the REAL ID Act went into effect today. This means that only certain types of identification documents will be accepted by TSA for travel by air.

AC: If you are planning any aviation travel this wee